Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland
Abstract Due to climate change, worldwide glaciers are rapidly declining. The trend will continue into the future, with consequences for sea level, water availability and tourism. Here, we assess the future evolution of all glaciers in Scandinavia and Iceland until 2100 using the coupled surface mas...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.24 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143021000241 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2021.24 2024-10-13T14:07:27+00:00 Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland Compagno, Loris Zekollari, Harry Huss, Matthias Farinotti, Daniel 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.24 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143021000241 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 67, issue 264, page 727-743 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 journal-article 2021 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.24 2024-09-18T04:03:31Z Abstract Due to climate change, worldwide glaciers are rapidly declining. The trend will continue into the future, with consequences for sea level, water availability and tourism. Here, we assess the future evolution of all glaciers in Scandinavia and Iceland until 2100 using the coupled surface mass-balance ice-flow model GloGEMflow. The model is initialised with three distinct past climate data products (E-OBS, ERA-I, ERA-5), while future climate is prescribed by both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), in order to analyze their impact on glacier evolution. By 2100, we project Scandinavian glaciers to lose between 67 ± 18% and 90 ± 7% of their present-day (2018) volume under a low (RCP2.6) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario, respectively. Over the same period, losses for Icelandic glaciers are projected to be between 43 ± 11% (RCP2.6) and 85 ± 7% (RCP8.5). The projected evolution is only little impacted by both the choice of climate data products used in the past and the spatial resolution of the future climate projections, with differences in the ice volume remaining by 2100 of 7 and 5%, respectively. This small sensitivity is attributed to our model calibration strategy that relies on observed glacier-specific mass balances and thus compensates for differences between climate forcing products. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Iceland Journal of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Journal of Glaciology 67 264 727 743 |
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Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
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crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Due to climate change, worldwide glaciers are rapidly declining. The trend will continue into the future, with consequences for sea level, water availability and tourism. Here, we assess the future evolution of all glaciers in Scandinavia and Iceland until 2100 using the coupled surface mass-balance ice-flow model GloGEMflow. The model is initialised with three distinct past climate data products (E-OBS, ERA-I, ERA-5), while future climate is prescribed by both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), in order to analyze their impact on glacier evolution. By 2100, we project Scandinavian glaciers to lose between 67 ± 18% and 90 ± 7% of their present-day (2018) volume under a low (RCP2.6) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario, respectively. Over the same period, losses for Icelandic glaciers are projected to be between 43 ± 11% (RCP2.6) and 85 ± 7% (RCP8.5). The projected evolution is only little impacted by both the choice of climate data products used in the past and the spatial resolution of the future climate projections, with differences in the ice volume remaining by 2100 of 7 and 5%, respectively. This small sensitivity is attributed to our model calibration strategy that relies on observed glacier-specific mass balances and thus compensates for differences between climate forcing products. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Compagno, Loris Zekollari, Harry Huss, Matthias Farinotti, Daniel |
spellingShingle |
Compagno, Loris Zekollari, Harry Huss, Matthias Farinotti, Daniel Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland |
author_facet |
Compagno, Loris Zekollari, Harry Huss, Matthias Farinotti, Daniel |
author_sort |
Compagno, Loris |
title |
Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland |
title_short |
Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland |
title_full |
Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland |
title_fullStr |
Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland |
title_sort |
limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in scandinavia and iceland |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.24 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143021000241 |
genre |
glacier Iceland Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
glacier Iceland Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 67, issue 264, page 727-743 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.24 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
67 |
container_issue |
264 |
container_start_page |
727 |
op_container_end_page |
743 |
_version_ |
1812813748098826240 |