Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models
Abstract Climate-induced cryospheric changes can have a significant impact on the downstream water availability. In this study, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and the Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) are integrated to project the response of cryospheric and hydrological systems to cl...
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Cambridge University Press (CUP)
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.51 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143020000519 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2020.51 2024-06-23T07:54:15+00:00 Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models Khadka, Mira Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Rakesh 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.51 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143020000519 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 66, issue 259, page 831-845 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 journal-article 2020 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.51 2024-06-05T04:04:05Z Abstract Climate-induced cryospheric changes can have a significant impact on the downstream water availability. In this study, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and the Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) are integrated to project the response of cryospheric and hydrological systems to climate change until 2100. The study area comprises six sub-basins of glacierized Koshi River basin covering Nepalese and Chinese territories. The output from OGGM is provided as input to GDM along with the spatial and hydro-meteorological data. The average glacier area change in all the sub-basins from 2021 to 2100 is estimated as 65 and 85% decrease and the average glacier volume change is estimated as 76 and 86% decrease for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The future simulated discharge shows an increasing trend in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons and a decreasing trend in post-monsoon and winter seasons after 2060 in all the sub-basins, which can lead to wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons in the far future. A shift in peak flow is observed from August to July in most of the sub-basins. The coupled modelling technique used in this study can largely improve our understanding of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the Himalayan region. Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Journal of Glaciology 66 259 831 845 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
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crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Climate-induced cryospheric changes can have a significant impact on the downstream water availability. In this study, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and the Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) are integrated to project the response of cryospheric and hydrological systems to climate change until 2100. The study area comprises six sub-basins of glacierized Koshi River basin covering Nepalese and Chinese territories. The output from OGGM is provided as input to GDM along with the spatial and hydro-meteorological data. The average glacier area change in all the sub-basins from 2021 to 2100 is estimated as 65 and 85% decrease and the average glacier volume change is estimated as 76 and 86% decrease for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The future simulated discharge shows an increasing trend in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons and a decreasing trend in post-monsoon and winter seasons after 2060 in all the sub-basins, which can lead to wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons in the far future. A shift in peak flow is observed from August to July in most of the sub-basins. The coupled modelling technique used in this study can largely improve our understanding of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the Himalayan region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Khadka, Mira Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Rakesh |
spellingShingle |
Khadka, Mira Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Rakesh Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
author_facet |
Khadka, Mira Kayastha, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Rakesh |
author_sort |
Khadka, Mira |
title |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_short |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_full |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_fullStr |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
title_sort |
future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in koshi river basin, central himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.51 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143020000519 |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 66, issue 259, page 831-845 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.51 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
66 |
container_issue |
259 |
container_start_page |
831 |
op_container_end_page |
845 |
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1802646341110726656 |