A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications
Abstract Accurate estimations of ice thickness and volume are indispensable for ice flow modelling, hydrological forecasts and sea-level rise projections. We present a new ice thickness estimation model based on a mass-conserving forward model and a Bayesian inversion scheme. The forward model calcu...
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Cambridge University Press (CUP)
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2019.93 2024-09-15T18:15:38+00:00 A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications Werder, Mauro A. Huss, Matthias Paul, Frank Dehecq, Amaury Farinotti, Daniel 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.93 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143019000935 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 66, issue 255, page 137-152 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 journal-article 2019 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.93 2024-07-24T04:04:08Z Abstract Accurate estimations of ice thickness and volume are indispensable for ice flow modelling, hydrological forecasts and sea-level rise projections. We present a new ice thickness estimation model based on a mass-conserving forward model and a Bayesian inversion scheme. The forward model calculates flux in an elevation-band flow-line model, and translates this into ice thickness and surface ice speed using a shallow ice formulation. Both ice thickness and speed are then extrapolated to the map plane. The model assimilates observations of ice thickness and speed using a Bayesian scheme implemented with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which calculates estimates of ice thickness and their error. We illustrate the model's capabilities by applying it to a mountain glacier, validate the model using 733 glaciers from four regions with ice thickness measurements, and demonstrate that the model can be used for large-scale studies by fitting it to over 30 000 glaciers from five regions. The results show that the model performs best when a few thickness observations are available; that the proposed scheme by which parameter-knowledge from a set of glaciers is transferred to others works but has room for improvements; and that the inferred regional ice volumes are consistent with recent estimates. Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Journal of Glaciology 66 255 137 152 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
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crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Accurate estimations of ice thickness and volume are indispensable for ice flow modelling, hydrological forecasts and sea-level rise projections. We present a new ice thickness estimation model based on a mass-conserving forward model and a Bayesian inversion scheme. The forward model calculates flux in an elevation-band flow-line model, and translates this into ice thickness and surface ice speed using a shallow ice formulation. Both ice thickness and speed are then extrapolated to the map plane. The model assimilates observations of ice thickness and speed using a Bayesian scheme implemented with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which calculates estimates of ice thickness and their error. We illustrate the model's capabilities by applying it to a mountain glacier, validate the model using 733 glaciers from four regions with ice thickness measurements, and demonstrate that the model can be used for large-scale studies by fitting it to over 30 000 glaciers from five regions. The results show that the model performs best when a few thickness observations are available; that the proposed scheme by which parameter-knowledge from a set of glaciers is transferred to others works but has room for improvements; and that the inferred regional ice volumes are consistent with recent estimates. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Werder, Mauro A. Huss, Matthias Paul, Frank Dehecq, Amaury Farinotti, Daniel |
spellingShingle |
Werder, Mauro A. Huss, Matthias Paul, Frank Dehecq, Amaury Farinotti, Daniel A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications |
author_facet |
Werder, Mauro A. Huss, Matthias Paul, Frank Dehecq, Amaury Farinotti, Daniel |
author_sort |
Werder, Mauro A. |
title |
A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications |
title_short |
A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications |
title_full |
A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications |
title_fullStr |
A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications |
title_sort |
bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.93 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143019000935 |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 66, issue 255, page 137-152 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.93 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
66 |
container_issue |
255 |
container_start_page |
137 |
op_container_end_page |
152 |
_version_ |
1810453525593849856 |