Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300
Abstract Like most ice caps and glaciers worldwide, Icelandic glaciers are retreating in a warming climate. Here, the evolution of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1980 to 2300 is simulated by forcing the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) with output from Regional Climate Models (RCMs). For climate...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S002214301900090X |
id |
crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2019.90 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2019.90 2024-06-23T07:53:03+00:00 Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 Schmidt, Louise Steffensen Ađalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna Pálsson, Finnur Langen, Peter L. Guđmundsson, Sverrir Björnsson, Helgi 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S002214301900090X en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 66, issue 255, page 97-112 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 journal-article 2019 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 2024-06-05T04:03:00Z Abstract Like most ice caps and glaciers worldwide, Icelandic glaciers are retreating in a warming climate. Here, the evolution of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1980 to 2300 is simulated by forcing the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) with output from Regional Climate Models (RCMs). For climate simulations of the recent past, HARMONIE-AROME reanalysis-forced simulations are used, while for future climate conditions, high-resolution (5.5 km) simulations from the RCM HIRHAM5 are used in addition to available CORDEX simulations (12 km). The glacier evolution is modelled using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios until 2100. To extend the time series, the 2081–2100 climate forcing is repeated until 2300. For RCP 4.5, the ice cap loses 31–64% of its volume and 13–37% of its area by 2300 depending on the used model forcing. For RCP 8.5, the volume decrease is 51–94% and the area decrease is 24–80% by 2300. In addition, the effect of elevation feedbacks is investigated by adding a precipitation and temperature lapse rate to the HIRHAM5 simulations. By 2300, the lapse rate runs have a 9–14% smaller volume and a 9–20% smaller area than the runs without a lapse rate correction. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Ice cap Ice Sheet Iceland Journal of Glaciology Vatnajökull Cambridge University Press Vatnajökull ENVELOPE(-16.823,-16.823,64.420,64.420) Journal of Glaciology 66 255 97 112 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Cambridge University Press |
op_collection_id |
crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Like most ice caps and glaciers worldwide, Icelandic glaciers are retreating in a warming climate. Here, the evolution of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1980 to 2300 is simulated by forcing the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) with output from Regional Climate Models (RCMs). For climate simulations of the recent past, HARMONIE-AROME reanalysis-forced simulations are used, while for future climate conditions, high-resolution (5.5 km) simulations from the RCM HIRHAM5 are used in addition to available CORDEX simulations (12 km). The glacier evolution is modelled using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios until 2100. To extend the time series, the 2081–2100 climate forcing is repeated until 2300. For RCP 4.5, the ice cap loses 31–64% of its volume and 13–37% of its area by 2300 depending on the used model forcing. For RCP 8.5, the volume decrease is 51–94% and the area decrease is 24–80% by 2300. In addition, the effect of elevation feedbacks is investigated by adding a precipitation and temperature lapse rate to the HIRHAM5 simulations. By 2300, the lapse rate runs have a 9–14% smaller volume and a 9–20% smaller area than the runs without a lapse rate correction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schmidt, Louise Steffensen Ađalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna Pálsson, Finnur Langen, Peter L. Guđmundsson, Sverrir Björnsson, Helgi |
spellingShingle |
Schmidt, Louise Steffensen Ađalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna Pálsson, Finnur Langen, Peter L. Guđmundsson, Sverrir Björnsson, Helgi Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
author_facet |
Schmidt, Louise Steffensen Ađalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna Pálsson, Finnur Langen, Peter L. Guđmundsson, Sverrir Björnsson, Helgi |
author_sort |
Schmidt, Louise Steffensen |
title |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_short |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_full |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_fullStr |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_sort |
dynamic simulations of vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S002214301900090X |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-16.823,-16.823,64.420,64.420) |
geographic |
Vatnajökull |
geographic_facet |
Vatnajökull |
genre |
glacier Ice cap Ice Sheet Iceland Journal of Glaciology Vatnajökull |
genre_facet |
glacier Ice cap Ice Sheet Iceland Journal of Glaciology Vatnajökull |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 66, issue 255, page 97-112 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
66 |
container_issue |
255 |
container_start_page |
97 |
op_container_end_page |
112 |
_version_ |
1802644531174178816 |