Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes
Abstract Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate conditions. In this study, a numerical model – driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat f...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.78 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143019000789 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2019.78 2024-03-03T08:37:41+00:00 Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes Echeverría, Sebastián Hausner, Mark B. Bambach, Nicolás Vicuña, Sebastián Suárez, Francisco 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.78 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143019000789 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 66, issue 255, page 11-24 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 Earth-Surface Processes journal-article 2019 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.78 2024-02-08T08:26:56Z Abstract Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate conditions. In this study, a numerical model – driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat fluxes from the water body beneath the ice cover – was implemented to investigate the impact of climate change on the ice covers from two Antarctic lakes: west lobe of Lake Bonney (WLB) and Crooked Lake. Model results agreed well with measured ice thicknesses of both lakes (WLB – RMSE= 0.11 m over 16 years of data; Crooked Lake – RMSE= 0.07 m over 1 year of data), and had acceptable results with measured ablation data at WLB (RMSE= 0.28 m over 6 years). The differences between measured and modeled ablation occurred because the model does not consider interannual variability of the ice optical properties and seasonal changes of the lake's thermal structure. Results indicate that projected summer air temperatures will increase the ice-cover annual melting in WLB by 2050, but that the ice cover will remain perennial through the end of this century. Contrarily, at Crooked Lake the ice cover becomes ephemeral most likely due to the increase in air temperatures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Journal of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Antarctic Bonney ENVELOPE(162.417,162.417,-77.717,-77.717) Lake Bonney ENVELOPE(-25.588,-25.588,-80.361,-80.361) Crooked Lake ENVELOPE(78.382,78.382,-68.617,-68.617) Journal of Glaciology 66 255 11 24 |
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Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
op_collection_id |
crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth-Surface Processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth-Surface Processes Echeverría, Sebastián Hausner, Mark B. Bambach, Nicolás Vicuña, Sebastián Suárez, Francisco Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
topic_facet |
Earth-Surface Processes |
description |
Abstract Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate conditions. In this study, a numerical model – driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat fluxes from the water body beneath the ice cover – was implemented to investigate the impact of climate change on the ice covers from two Antarctic lakes: west lobe of Lake Bonney (WLB) and Crooked Lake. Model results agreed well with measured ice thicknesses of both lakes (WLB – RMSE= 0.11 m over 16 years of data; Crooked Lake – RMSE= 0.07 m over 1 year of data), and had acceptable results with measured ablation data at WLB (RMSE= 0.28 m over 6 years). The differences between measured and modeled ablation occurred because the model does not consider interannual variability of the ice optical properties and seasonal changes of the lake's thermal structure. Results indicate that projected summer air temperatures will increase the ice-cover annual melting in WLB by 2050, but that the ice cover will remain perennial through the end of this century. Contrarily, at Crooked Lake the ice cover becomes ephemeral most likely due to the increase in air temperatures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Echeverría, Sebastián Hausner, Mark B. Bambach, Nicolás Vicuña, Sebastián Suárez, Francisco |
author_facet |
Echeverría, Sebastián Hausner, Mark B. Bambach, Nicolás Vicuña, Sebastián Suárez, Francisco |
author_sort |
Echeverría, Sebastián |
title |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_short |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_full |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_fullStr |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_sort |
modeling present and future ice covers in two antarctic lakes |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.78 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143019000789 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(162.417,162.417,-77.717,-77.717) ENVELOPE(-25.588,-25.588,-80.361,-80.361) ENVELOPE(78.382,78.382,-68.617,-68.617) |
geographic |
Antarctic Bonney Lake Bonney Crooked Lake |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Bonney Lake Bonney Crooked Lake |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 66, issue 255, page 11-24 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.78 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
66 |
container_issue |
255 |
container_start_page |
11 |
op_container_end_page |
24 |
_version_ |
1792500758718971904 |