Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland
ABSTRACT Forecasting of glacier mass balance is important for optimal management of hydrological resources, especially where glacial meltwater constitutes a significant portion of stream flow, as is the case for many rivers in Iceland. In this study, a method was developed and applied to forecast th...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.22 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143018000229 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2018.22 2024-03-03T08:44:37+00:00 Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland EYTHORSSON, DARRI GARDARSSON, SIGURDUR M. GUNNARSSON, ANDRI HRAFNKELSSON, BIRGIR 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.22 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143018000229 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 64, issue 244, page 311-320 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 Earth-Surface Processes journal-article 2018 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.22 2024-02-08T08:35:03Z ABSTRACT Forecasting of glacier mass balance is important for optimal management of hydrological resources, especially where glacial meltwater constitutes a significant portion of stream flow, as is the case for many rivers in Iceland. In this study, a method was developed and applied to forecast the summer mass balance of Brúarjökull glacier in southeast Iceland. In the present study, many variables measured in the basin were evaluated, including glaciological snow accumulation data, various climate indices and meteorological measurements including temperature, humidity and radiation. The most relevant single predictor variables were selected using correlation analysis. The selected variables were used to define a set of potential multivariate linear regression models that were optimized by selecting an ensemble of plausible models showing good fit to calibration data. A mass-balance estimate was calculated as a uniform average across ensemble predictions. The method was evaluated using fivefold cross-validation and the statistical metrics Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, the ratio of the root mean square error to the std dev. and percent bias. The results showed that the model produces satisfactory predictions when forced with initial condition data available at the beginning of the summer melt season, between 15 June and 1 July, whereas less reliable predictions are produced for longer lead times. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Iceland Journal of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Nash ENVELOPE(-62.350,-62.350,-74.233,-74.233) Sutcliffe ENVELOPE(-81.383,-81.383,50.683,50.683) Brúarjökull ENVELOPE(-16.157,-16.157,64.682,64.682) Journal of Glaciology 64 244 311 320 |
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Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
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crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth-Surface Processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth-Surface Processes EYTHORSSON, DARRI GARDARSSON, SIGURDUR M. GUNNARSSON, ANDRI HRAFNKELSSON, BIRGIR Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland |
topic_facet |
Earth-Surface Processes |
description |
ABSTRACT Forecasting of glacier mass balance is important for optimal management of hydrological resources, especially where glacial meltwater constitutes a significant portion of stream flow, as is the case for many rivers in Iceland. In this study, a method was developed and applied to forecast the summer mass balance of Brúarjökull glacier in southeast Iceland. In the present study, many variables measured in the basin were evaluated, including glaciological snow accumulation data, various climate indices and meteorological measurements including temperature, humidity and radiation. The most relevant single predictor variables were selected using correlation analysis. The selected variables were used to define a set of potential multivariate linear regression models that were optimized by selecting an ensemble of plausible models showing good fit to calibration data. A mass-balance estimate was calculated as a uniform average across ensemble predictions. The method was evaluated using fivefold cross-validation and the statistical metrics Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, the ratio of the root mean square error to the std dev. and percent bias. The results showed that the model produces satisfactory predictions when forced with initial condition data available at the beginning of the summer melt season, between 15 June and 1 July, whereas less reliable predictions are produced for longer lead times. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
EYTHORSSON, DARRI GARDARSSON, SIGURDUR M. GUNNARSSON, ANDRI HRAFNKELSSON, BIRGIR |
author_facet |
EYTHORSSON, DARRI GARDARSSON, SIGURDUR M. GUNNARSSON, ANDRI HRAFNKELSSON, BIRGIR |
author_sort |
EYTHORSSON, DARRI |
title |
Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland |
title_short |
Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland |
title_full |
Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland |
title_fullStr |
Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to Brúarjökull glacier, South East Iceland |
title_sort |
statistical summer mass-balance forecast model with application to brúarjökull glacier, south east iceland |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.22 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143018000229 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-62.350,-62.350,-74.233,-74.233) ENVELOPE(-81.383,-81.383,50.683,50.683) ENVELOPE(-16.157,-16.157,64.682,64.682) |
geographic |
Nash Sutcliffe Brúarjökull |
geographic_facet |
Nash Sutcliffe Brúarjökull |
genre |
glacier Iceland Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
glacier Iceland Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 64, issue 244, page 311-320 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.22 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
64 |
container_issue |
244 |
container_start_page |
311 |
op_container_end_page |
320 |
_version_ |
1792500108440371200 |