How sensitive are mountain glaciers to climate change? Insights from a block model
ABSTRACT Simple models of glacier volume evolution are important in understanding features of glacier response to climate change, due to the scarcity of data adequate for running more complex models on a global scale. Two quantities of interest in a glacier's response to climate changes are its...
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Cambridge University Press (CUP)
2018
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.15 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143018000151 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2018.15 2024-06-23T07:54:15+00:00 How sensitive are mountain glaciers to climate change? Insights from a block model BACH, EVIATAR RADIĆ, VALENTINA SCHOOF, CHRISTIAN 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.15 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143018000151 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 64, issue 244, page 247-258 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 journal-article 2018 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.15 2024-06-05T04:04:53Z ABSTRACT Simple models of glacier volume evolution are important in understanding features of glacier response to climate change, due to the scarcity of data adequate for running more complex models on a global scale. Two quantities of interest in a glacier's response to climate changes are its response time and its volume sensitivity to changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). We derive a simplified, computationally inexpensive model of glacier volume evolution based on a block model with volume–area–length scaling. After analyzing its steady-state properties, we apply the model to each mountain glacier worldwide and estimate regionally differentiated response times and sensitivities to ELA changes. We use a statistical method from the family of global sensitivity analysis methods to determine the glacier quantities, geometric and climatic, that most influence the model output. The response time is dominated by the climatic setting reflected in the mass-balance gradient in the ablation zone, followed by the surface slope, while volume sensitivity is mainly affected by glacier size, followed by the surface slope. Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Ela ENVELOPE(9.642,9.642,63.170,63.170) Journal of Glaciology 64 244 247 258 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Cambridge University Press |
op_collection_id |
crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT Simple models of glacier volume evolution are important in understanding features of glacier response to climate change, due to the scarcity of data adequate for running more complex models on a global scale. Two quantities of interest in a glacier's response to climate changes are its response time and its volume sensitivity to changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). We derive a simplified, computationally inexpensive model of glacier volume evolution based on a block model with volume–area–length scaling. After analyzing its steady-state properties, we apply the model to each mountain glacier worldwide and estimate regionally differentiated response times and sensitivities to ELA changes. We use a statistical method from the family of global sensitivity analysis methods to determine the glacier quantities, geometric and climatic, that most influence the model output. The response time is dominated by the climatic setting reflected in the mass-balance gradient in the ablation zone, followed by the surface slope, while volume sensitivity is mainly affected by glacier size, followed by the surface slope. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
BACH, EVIATAR RADIĆ, VALENTINA SCHOOF, CHRISTIAN |
spellingShingle |
BACH, EVIATAR RADIĆ, VALENTINA SCHOOF, CHRISTIAN How sensitive are mountain glaciers to climate change? Insights from a block model |
author_facet |
BACH, EVIATAR RADIĆ, VALENTINA SCHOOF, CHRISTIAN |
author_sort |
BACH, EVIATAR |
title |
How sensitive are mountain glaciers to climate change? Insights from a block model |
title_short |
How sensitive are mountain glaciers to climate change? Insights from a block model |
title_full |
How sensitive are mountain glaciers to climate change? Insights from a block model |
title_fullStr |
How sensitive are mountain glaciers to climate change? Insights from a block model |
title_full_unstemmed |
How sensitive are mountain glaciers to climate change? Insights from a block model |
title_sort |
how sensitive are mountain glaciers to climate change? insights from a block model |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.15 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143018000151 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(9.642,9.642,63.170,63.170) |
geographic |
Ela |
geographic_facet |
Ela |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 64, issue 244, page 247-258 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.15 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
64 |
container_issue |
244 |
container_start_page |
247 |
op_container_end_page |
258 |
_version_ |
1802646355573735424 |