The response of glaciers to climatic persistence
Abstract The attribution of past glacier length fluctuations to changes in climate requires characterizing glacier mass-balance variability. Observational records, which are relatively short, are consistent with random fluctuations uncorrelated in time, plus an anthropogenic trend. However, longer r...
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/jog.2016.4 2024-03-03T08:46:01+00:00 The response of glaciers to climatic persistence ROE, GERARD H. BAKER, MARCIA B. 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.4 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143016000046 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Journal of Glaciology volume 62, issue 233, page 440-450 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 Earth-Surface Processes journal-article 2016 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.4 2024-02-08T08:26:39Z Abstract The attribution of past glacier length fluctuations to changes in climate requires characterizing glacier mass-balance variability. Observational records, which are relatively short, are consistent with random fluctuations uncorrelated in time, plus an anthropogenic trend. However, longer records of other climate variables suggest that, in fact, there is a degree of temporal persistence associated with internal (i.e. unforced) climate variability, and that it varies with location and climate. Therefore, it is likely that persistence does exist for mass balance, but records are too short to confirm its presence, or establish its magnitude, with conventional statistical tests. Extending the previous work, we explore the impact of potential climatic persistence on glacier length fluctuations. We use a numerical model and a newly developed analytical model to establish that persistence, even of a degree so small as to be effectively undetectable in the longest mass-balance records, can significantly enhance the resulting glacier length fluctuations. This has a big impact on glacier-excursion probabilities: what was an extremely unlikely event (<1%) can become virtually certain (>99%), when persistence is incorporated. Since the actual degree of climatic persistence that applies to any given glacier is hard to establish, these results complicate the attribution of past glacier changes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Journal of Glaciology 62 233 440 450 |
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Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
op_collection_id |
crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth-Surface Processes |
spellingShingle |
Earth-Surface Processes ROE, GERARD H. BAKER, MARCIA B. The response of glaciers to climatic persistence |
topic_facet |
Earth-Surface Processes |
description |
Abstract The attribution of past glacier length fluctuations to changes in climate requires characterizing glacier mass-balance variability. Observational records, which are relatively short, are consistent with random fluctuations uncorrelated in time, plus an anthropogenic trend. However, longer records of other climate variables suggest that, in fact, there is a degree of temporal persistence associated with internal (i.e. unforced) climate variability, and that it varies with location and climate. Therefore, it is likely that persistence does exist for mass balance, but records are too short to confirm its presence, or establish its magnitude, with conventional statistical tests. Extending the previous work, we explore the impact of potential climatic persistence on glacier length fluctuations. We use a numerical model and a newly developed analytical model to establish that persistence, even of a degree so small as to be effectively undetectable in the longest mass-balance records, can significantly enhance the resulting glacier length fluctuations. This has a big impact on glacier-excursion probabilities: what was an extremely unlikely event (<1%) can become virtually certain (>99%), when persistence is incorporated. Since the actual degree of climatic persistence that applies to any given glacier is hard to establish, these results complicate the attribution of past glacier changes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
ROE, GERARD H. BAKER, MARCIA B. |
author_facet |
ROE, GERARD H. BAKER, MARCIA B. |
author_sort |
ROE, GERARD H. |
title |
The response of glaciers to climatic persistence |
title_short |
The response of glaciers to climatic persistence |
title_full |
The response of glaciers to climatic persistence |
title_fullStr |
The response of glaciers to climatic persistence |
title_full_unstemmed |
The response of glaciers to climatic persistence |
title_sort |
response of glaciers to climatic persistence |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.4 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143016000046 |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology volume 62, issue 233, page 440-450 ISSN 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.4 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
62 |
container_issue |
233 |
container_start_page |
440 |
op_container_end_page |
450 |
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1792501810756321280 |