Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size
Abstract Spatial variability of snowpack properties adds uncertainty in the evaluation of avalanche hazard. We propose a combined mechanical–statistical approach to study how spatial variation of slab depth affects the skier-triggering probability and possible release size. First, we generate multip...
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Cambridge University Press (CUP)
2024
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/aog.2024.3 2024-06-09T07:38:27+00:00 Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size Meloche, Francis Guillet, Louis Gauthier, Francis Langlois, Alexandre Gaume, Johan 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aog.2024.3 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S026030552400003X en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Annals of Glaciology page 1-15 ISSN 0260-3055 1727-5644 journal-article 2024 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2024.3 2024-05-15T13:02:25Z Abstract Spatial variability of snowpack properties adds uncertainty in the evaluation of avalanche hazard. We propose a combined mechanical–statistical approach to study how spatial variation of slab depth affects the skier-triggering probability and possible release size. First, we generate multiple slab depth maps on a plane fictional slope based on Gaussian Random Fields (GRF) for a specific set of mean, variance and correlation length. For each GRF, we derive analytically the Skier Propagation Index (SPI). We then simulate multiple skier tracks and computed the probability based on the number of skier hits where SPI is below 1. Finally, we use a depth-averaged material point method to evaluate the possible avalanche size for given slab depth variations. The results of this analysis show that large correlation lengths and small variances lead to a lower probability of skier-triggering as it reduces the size and the number of areas with low slab depth. Then, we show the effect of skiing style and skier group size on skier-triggering probability. Spatial variability also affects the possible avalanche size by adding stress fluctuation causing early or late tensile failure. Finally, we demonstrate with our models the well-known relationship between the probability and the size in avalanche forecasting. Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Annals of Glaciology 1 36 |
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Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
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crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Spatial variability of snowpack properties adds uncertainty in the evaluation of avalanche hazard. We propose a combined mechanical–statistical approach to study how spatial variation of slab depth affects the skier-triggering probability and possible release size. First, we generate multiple slab depth maps on a plane fictional slope based on Gaussian Random Fields (GRF) for a specific set of mean, variance and correlation length. For each GRF, we derive analytically the Skier Propagation Index (SPI). We then simulate multiple skier tracks and computed the probability based on the number of skier hits where SPI is below 1. Finally, we use a depth-averaged material point method to evaluate the possible avalanche size for given slab depth variations. The results of this analysis show that large correlation lengths and small variances lead to a lower probability of skier-triggering as it reduces the size and the number of areas with low slab depth. Then, we show the effect of skiing style and skier group size on skier-triggering probability. Spatial variability also affects the possible avalanche size by adding stress fluctuation causing early or late tensile failure. Finally, we demonstrate with our models the well-known relationship between the probability and the size in avalanche forecasting. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Meloche, Francis Guillet, Louis Gauthier, Francis Langlois, Alexandre Gaume, Johan |
spellingShingle |
Meloche, Francis Guillet, Louis Gauthier, Francis Langlois, Alexandre Gaume, Johan Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
author_facet |
Meloche, Francis Guillet, Louis Gauthier, Francis Langlois, Alexandre Gaume, Johan |
author_sort |
Meloche, Francis |
title |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_short |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_full |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_fullStr |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
title_sort |
influence of slab depth spatial variability on skier-triggering probability and avalanche size |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aog.2024.3 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S026030552400003X |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology |
op_source |
Annals of Glaciology page 1-15 ISSN 0260-3055 1727-5644 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2024.3 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
36 |
_version_ |
1801373017047040000 |