Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies
Abstract The uncertainty of glacier change projections is largely influenced by glacier models. In this study, we focus on temperature-index mass-balance (MB) models and their calibration. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we examine the influence of different surface-type dependent degree...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.57 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0260305523000575 |
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crcambridgeupr:10.1017/aog.2023.57 2024-09-15T17:39:51+00:00 Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies Schuster, Lilian Rounce, David R. Maussion, Fabien Horizon 2020 Framework Programme Universität Innsbruck National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.57 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0260305523000575 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Annals of Glaciology page 1-16 ISSN 0260-3055 1727-5644 journal-article 2023 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.57 2024-07-10T04:03:43Z Abstract The uncertainty of glacier change projections is largely influenced by glacier models. In this study, we focus on temperature-index mass-balance (MB) models and their calibration. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we examine the influence of different surface-type dependent degree-day factors, temporal climate resolutions (daily, monthly) and downscaling options (temperature lapse rates, temperature and precipitation corrections) for 88 glaciers with in-situ observations. Our findings indicate that higher spatial and temporal resolution observations enhance MB gradient representation due to an improved calibration. The addition of surface-type distinction in the model also improves MB gradients, but the lack of independent observations limits our ability to demonstrate the added value of increased model complexity. Some model choices have systematic effects, for example weaker temperature lapse rates result in smaller projected glaciers. However, we often find counter balancing effects, such as the sensitivity to different degree-day factors for snow, firn and ice, which depends on how the glacier accumulation area ratio changes in the future. Similarly, using daily versus monthly climate data can affect glaciers differently depending on the shifting balance between melt and solid precipitation thresholds. Our study highlights the importance of considering minor model design differences to predict future glacier volumes and runoff accurately. Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Annals of Glaciology 1 16 |
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Open Polar |
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Cambridge University Press |
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crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The uncertainty of glacier change projections is largely influenced by glacier models. In this study, we focus on temperature-index mass-balance (MB) models and their calibration. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we examine the influence of different surface-type dependent degree-day factors, temporal climate resolutions (daily, monthly) and downscaling options (temperature lapse rates, temperature and precipitation corrections) for 88 glaciers with in-situ observations. Our findings indicate that higher spatial and temporal resolution observations enhance MB gradient representation due to an improved calibration. The addition of surface-type distinction in the model also improves MB gradients, but the lack of independent observations limits our ability to demonstrate the added value of increased model complexity. Some model choices have systematic effects, for example weaker temperature lapse rates result in smaller projected glaciers. However, we often find counter balancing effects, such as the sensitivity to different degree-day factors for snow, firn and ice, which depends on how the glacier accumulation area ratio changes in the future. Similarly, using daily versus monthly climate data can affect glaciers differently depending on the shifting balance between melt and solid precipitation thresholds. Our study highlights the importance of considering minor model design differences to predict future glacier volumes and runoff accurately. |
author2 |
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme Universität Innsbruck National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schuster, Lilian Rounce, David R. Maussion, Fabien |
spellingShingle |
Schuster, Lilian Rounce, David R. Maussion, Fabien Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies |
author_facet |
Schuster, Lilian Rounce, David R. Maussion, Fabien |
author_sort |
Schuster, Lilian |
title |
Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies |
title_short |
Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies |
title_full |
Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies |
title_fullStr |
Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies |
title_sort |
glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.57 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0260305523000575 |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology |
op_source |
Annals of Glaciology page 1-16 ISSN 0260-3055 1727-5644 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.57 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
16 |
_version_ |
1810482986998562816 |