Ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model
ABSTRACT A third-order linear glacier length model is used to analyze if the retreat of Hintereisferner in the Austrian Alps over the past 160 years is exceptional, or lies within the range of the natural variability inherent to a stationary climate. A detailed uncertainty analysis takes into accoun...
Published in: | Annals of Glaciology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
2017
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.15 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0260305517000155 |
id |
crcambridgeupr:10.1017/aog.2017.15 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crcambridgeupr:10.1017/aog.2017.15 2024-06-09T07:38:30+00:00 Ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model Herla, Florian Roe, Gerard H. Marzeion, Ben 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.15 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0260305517000155 en eng Cambridge University Press (CUP) Annals of Glaciology volume 58, issue 75pt2, page 130-135 ISSN 0260-3055 1727-5644 journal-article 2017 crcambridgeupr https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.15 2024-05-15T13:03:39Z ABSTRACT A third-order linear glacier length model is used to analyze if the retreat of Hintereisferner in the Austrian Alps over the past 160 years is exceptional, or lies within the range of the natural variability inherent to a stationary climate. A detailed uncertainty analysis takes into account glacier geometry, model parameters and initial conditions. A Monte Carlo ensemble strengthens the result that the observed retreat cannot be explained by natural variability and therefore affirms regional climate change. Finally the observed temperature trend at Hintereisferner lies outside the range of natural variability from an ensemble of climate models, but is consistent with the modeled range of responses to anthropogenic forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology Cambridge University Press Annals of Glaciology 58 75pt2 130 135 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Cambridge University Press |
op_collection_id |
crcambridgeupr |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT A third-order linear glacier length model is used to analyze if the retreat of Hintereisferner in the Austrian Alps over the past 160 years is exceptional, or lies within the range of the natural variability inherent to a stationary climate. A detailed uncertainty analysis takes into account glacier geometry, model parameters and initial conditions. A Monte Carlo ensemble strengthens the result that the observed retreat cannot be explained by natural variability and therefore affirms regional climate change. Finally the observed temperature trend at Hintereisferner lies outside the range of natural variability from an ensemble of climate models, but is consistent with the modeled range of responses to anthropogenic forcing. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Herla, Florian Roe, Gerard H. Marzeion, Ben |
spellingShingle |
Herla, Florian Roe, Gerard H. Marzeion, Ben Ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model |
author_facet |
Herla, Florian Roe, Gerard H. Marzeion, Ben |
author_sort |
Herla, Florian |
title |
Ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model |
title_short |
Ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model |
title_full |
Ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model |
title_fullStr |
Ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model |
title_sort |
ensemble statistics of a geometric glacier length model |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press (CUP) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.15 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0260305517000155 |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology |
op_source |
Annals of Glaciology volume 58, issue 75pt2, page 130-135 ISSN 0260-3055 1727-5644 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.15 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_volume |
58 |
container_issue |
75pt2 |
container_start_page |
130 |
op_container_end_page |
135 |
_version_ |
1801373337596723200 |