Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim?
Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3°C for doubled CO 2 , including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6°C for doubled CO 2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasi...
Published in: | The Open Atmospheric Science Journal |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/contents/volumes/V2/TOASCJ-2-217/TOASCJ-2-217.pdf https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/contents/volumes/V2/TOASCJ-2-217/TOASCJ-2-217.xml |
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crbenthamsciepub:10.2174/1874282300802010217 2024-10-29T17:41:28+00:00 Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim? Hansen, James Sato, Makiko Kharecha, Pushker Beerling, David Berner, Robert Masson-Delmotte, Valerie Pagani, Mark Raymo, Maureen Royer, Dana L. Zachos, James C. 2008 http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/contents/volumes/V2/TOASCJ-2-217/TOASCJ-2-217.pdf https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/contents/volumes/V2/TOASCJ-2-217/TOASCJ-2-217.xml en eng Bentham Science Publishers Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode The Open Atmospheric Science Journal volume 2, issue 1, page 217-231 ISSN 1874-2823 journal-article 2008 crbenthamsciepub https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 2024-10-10T04:05:51Z Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3°C for doubled CO 2 , including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6°C for doubled CO 2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, the planet being nearly ice-free until CO fell to 450 ± 100 ppm; barring prompt policy changes, that critical level will be passed, in the opposite direction, within decades. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO 2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO 2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO 2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO 2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO 2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Bentham Science Publishers The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2 1 217 231 |
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Open Polar |
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Bentham Science Publishers |
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crbenthamsciepub |
language |
English |
description |
Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3°C for doubled CO 2 , including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6°C for doubled CO 2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, the planet being nearly ice-free until CO fell to 450 ± 100 ppm; barring prompt policy changes, that critical level will be passed, in the opposite direction, within decades. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO 2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO 2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO 2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO 2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO 2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hansen, James Sato, Makiko Kharecha, Pushker Beerling, David Berner, Robert Masson-Delmotte, Valerie Pagani, Mark Raymo, Maureen Royer, Dana L. Zachos, James C. |
spellingShingle |
Hansen, James Sato, Makiko Kharecha, Pushker Beerling, David Berner, Robert Masson-Delmotte, Valerie Pagani, Mark Raymo, Maureen Royer, Dana L. Zachos, James C. Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim? |
author_facet |
Hansen, James Sato, Makiko Kharecha, Pushker Beerling, David Berner, Robert Masson-Delmotte, Valerie Pagani, Mark Raymo, Maureen Royer, Dana L. Zachos, James C. |
author_sort |
Hansen, James |
title |
Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim? |
title_short |
Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim? |
title_full |
Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim? |
title_fullStr |
Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim? |
title_sort |
target atmospheric co: where should humanity aim? |
publisher |
Bentham Science Publishers Ltd. |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/contents/volumes/V2/TOASCJ-2-217/TOASCJ-2-217.pdf https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/contents/volumes/V2/TOASCJ-2-217/TOASCJ-2-217.xml |
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Antarc* |
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Antarc* |
op_source |
The Open Atmospheric Science Journal volume 2, issue 1, page 217-231 ISSN 1874-2823 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.2174/1874282300802010217 |
container_title |
The Open Atmospheric Science Journal |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
217 |
op_container_end_page |
231 |
_version_ |
1814278925856014336 |