Modelling Tundra Ponds as Initiators of Peat Plateau Thaw, Northern Hudson Bay Lowland, Manitoba
Frozen peat in permafrost regions poses a potential source of increased greenhouse gas production should these deposits thaw. Ponds on frozen peat plateaus in northern Manitoba are numerically modelled as heat sources to determine their potential to promote thaw. Modelling indicates that anticipated...
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The Arctic Institute of North America
2022
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/arctic75150 https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/download/75150/55805 |
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crarcticinstna:10.14430/arctic75150 2024-09-15T17:34:55+00:00 Modelling Tundra Ponds as Initiators of Peat Plateau Thaw, Northern Hudson Bay Lowland, Manitoba Dyke, Larry D. Sladen, Wendy E. 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/arctic75150 https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/download/75150/55805 unknown The Arctic Institute of North America http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ARCTIC ISSN 1923-1245 0004-0843 journal-article 2022 crarcticinstna https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic75150 2024-09-03T04:00:33Z Frozen peat in permafrost regions poses a potential source of increased greenhouse gas production should these deposits thaw. Ponds on frozen peat plateaus in northern Manitoba are numerically modelled as heat sources to determine their potential to promote thaw. Modelling indicates that anticipated climate warming of approximately 2 °C between 2020 and 2050 will produce taliks up to few metres thick beneath ponds a few tens of metres across. However, active-layer thickness in the subaerial parts of peat plateaus will not increase beyond the peat thickness. These findings assume 1) a climate warming rate under a moderately effective intervention in greenhouse gas production, 2) pond freezing regimes that represent both rapid ice formation and ice formation delayed by rapid snow accumulation and 3) snow thermal conductivities that anticipate snow conductivity increase during the freeze interval. These conditions and properties may turn out to be less conducive to talik expansion than the values that will actually occur. Despite these uncertainties, peat plateau pond sizes and plateau margin positions can be monitored to ascertain the onset of accelerated thawing. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Arctic Hudson Bay Ice Peat Peat plateau permafrost Talik Tundra Arctic Institute of North America ARCTIC |
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Arctic Institute of North America |
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description |
Frozen peat in permafrost regions poses a potential source of increased greenhouse gas production should these deposits thaw. Ponds on frozen peat plateaus in northern Manitoba are numerically modelled as heat sources to determine their potential to promote thaw. Modelling indicates that anticipated climate warming of approximately 2 °C between 2020 and 2050 will produce taliks up to few metres thick beneath ponds a few tens of metres across. However, active-layer thickness in the subaerial parts of peat plateaus will not increase beyond the peat thickness. These findings assume 1) a climate warming rate under a moderately effective intervention in greenhouse gas production, 2) pond freezing regimes that represent both rapid ice formation and ice formation delayed by rapid snow accumulation and 3) snow thermal conductivities that anticipate snow conductivity increase during the freeze interval. These conditions and properties may turn out to be less conducive to talik expansion than the values that will actually occur. Despite these uncertainties, peat plateau pond sizes and plateau margin positions can be monitored to ascertain the onset of accelerated thawing. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dyke, Larry D. Sladen, Wendy E. |
spellingShingle |
Dyke, Larry D. Sladen, Wendy E. Modelling Tundra Ponds as Initiators of Peat Plateau Thaw, Northern Hudson Bay Lowland, Manitoba |
author_facet |
Dyke, Larry D. Sladen, Wendy E. |
author_sort |
Dyke, Larry D. |
title |
Modelling Tundra Ponds as Initiators of Peat Plateau Thaw, Northern Hudson Bay Lowland, Manitoba |
title_short |
Modelling Tundra Ponds as Initiators of Peat Plateau Thaw, Northern Hudson Bay Lowland, Manitoba |
title_full |
Modelling Tundra Ponds as Initiators of Peat Plateau Thaw, Northern Hudson Bay Lowland, Manitoba |
title_fullStr |
Modelling Tundra Ponds as Initiators of Peat Plateau Thaw, Northern Hudson Bay Lowland, Manitoba |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling Tundra Ponds as Initiators of Peat Plateau Thaw, Northern Hudson Bay Lowland, Manitoba |
title_sort |
modelling tundra ponds as initiators of peat plateau thaw, northern hudson bay lowland, manitoba |
publisher |
The Arctic Institute of North America |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/arctic75150 https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/download/75150/55805 |
genre |
Active layer thickness Arctic Hudson Bay Ice Peat Peat plateau permafrost Talik Tundra |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Arctic Hudson Bay Ice Peat Peat plateau permafrost Talik Tundra |
op_source |
ARCTIC ISSN 1923-1245 0004-0843 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic75150 |
container_title |
ARCTIC |
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1810433523535839232 |