The Russian Arctic by 2050: Developing Integrated Scenarios
Scenarios of future development pathways in the Arctic created by groups of experts and stakeholders are an effective way to identify and illustrate possible alternatives and options for this region based on anticipated environmental and socioeconomic changes. Although scenarios that assess developm...
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The Arctic Institute of North America
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crarcticinstna:10.14430/arctic73242 2024-06-09T07:42:13+00:00 The Russian Arctic by 2050: Developing Integrated Scenarios Petrov, Andrey N. Rozanova Smith, Marya S. Krivorotov, Andrey K. Klyuchnikova, Elena M. Mikheev, Valeriy L. Pelyasov, Alexander N. Zamyatina, Nadezhda Yu. 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/arctic73242 https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/download/73242/55190 unknown The Arctic Institute of North America http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ARCTIC volume 74, issue 3, page 306-322 ISSN 1923-1245 0004-0843 journal-article 2021 crarcticinstna https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic73242 2024-05-14T12:53:43Z Scenarios of future development pathways in the Arctic created by groups of experts and stakeholders are an effective way to identify and illustrate possible alternatives and options for this region based on anticipated environmental and socioeconomic changes. Although scenarios that assess development trajectories for the Arctic are becoming increasingly popular, there is a relative lack of regional perspective in foresight exercises devoted to the Russian Arctic. This article presents and discusses development scenarios for the Russian Arctic until 2050 that were built by a diverse group of academics, local officials, Indigenous leaders, and business representatives at a scenario workshop in Naryan-Mar, Russia. The scenarios focus on Russia’s Arctic zone and incorporate future visioning of economic development, international cooperation with the West and China, shipping, human and social capital, and Indigenous peoples’ livelihoods in the context of climate change. We apply a novel circular-axial technique to synthesize and combine the 12 initially created thematic scenarios into four final cross-cutting integrated scenarios that describe alternative futures for the Russian Arctic by 2050: Harmonious Arctic, Self-Reliant Arctic, Resource-Dependent Arctic, and Forgotten Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Arctic Institute of North America Arctic ARCTIC 74 3 306 322 |
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Scenarios of future development pathways in the Arctic created by groups of experts and stakeholders are an effective way to identify and illustrate possible alternatives and options for this region based on anticipated environmental and socioeconomic changes. Although scenarios that assess development trajectories for the Arctic are becoming increasingly popular, there is a relative lack of regional perspective in foresight exercises devoted to the Russian Arctic. This article presents and discusses development scenarios for the Russian Arctic until 2050 that were built by a diverse group of academics, local officials, Indigenous leaders, and business representatives at a scenario workshop in Naryan-Mar, Russia. The scenarios focus on Russia’s Arctic zone and incorporate future visioning of economic development, international cooperation with the West and China, shipping, human and social capital, and Indigenous peoples’ livelihoods in the context of climate change. We apply a novel circular-axial technique to synthesize and combine the 12 initially created thematic scenarios into four final cross-cutting integrated scenarios that describe alternative futures for the Russian Arctic by 2050: Harmonious Arctic, Self-Reliant Arctic, Resource-Dependent Arctic, and Forgotten Arctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Petrov, Andrey N. Rozanova Smith, Marya S. Krivorotov, Andrey K. Klyuchnikova, Elena M. Mikheev, Valeriy L. Pelyasov, Alexander N. Zamyatina, Nadezhda Yu. |
spellingShingle |
Petrov, Andrey N. Rozanova Smith, Marya S. Krivorotov, Andrey K. Klyuchnikova, Elena M. Mikheev, Valeriy L. Pelyasov, Alexander N. Zamyatina, Nadezhda Yu. The Russian Arctic by 2050: Developing Integrated Scenarios |
author_facet |
Petrov, Andrey N. Rozanova Smith, Marya S. Krivorotov, Andrey K. Klyuchnikova, Elena M. Mikheev, Valeriy L. Pelyasov, Alexander N. Zamyatina, Nadezhda Yu. |
author_sort |
Petrov, Andrey N. |
title |
The Russian Arctic by 2050: Developing Integrated Scenarios |
title_short |
The Russian Arctic by 2050: Developing Integrated Scenarios |
title_full |
The Russian Arctic by 2050: Developing Integrated Scenarios |
title_fullStr |
The Russian Arctic by 2050: Developing Integrated Scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Russian Arctic by 2050: Developing Integrated Scenarios |
title_sort |
russian arctic by 2050: developing integrated scenarios |
publisher |
The Arctic Institute of North America |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/arctic73242 https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/download/73242/55190 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
ARCTIC volume 74, issue 3, page 306-322 ISSN 1923-1245 0004-0843 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic73242 |
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ARCTIC |
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322 |
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1801371112521596928 |