Do North American Migratory Barren-Ground Caribou Subpopulations Cycle?
Unlike all other members of the deer family, subpopulations of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) are typically sine-cyclic. We used Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank competing population dynamics models for 11 North American barren-ground caribou subpopulations. Nine...
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2020
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crarcticinstna:10.14430/arctic71029 2024-06-09T07:42:10+00:00 Do North American Migratory Barren-Ground Caribou Subpopulations Cycle? Bongelli, Eric Dowsley, Martha Velasco-Herrera, Victor M. Taylor, Mitchell 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/arctic71029 https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/download/71029/54349 https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/download/71029/54352 unknown The Arctic Institute of North America http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ARCTIC volume 73, issue 3, page 326-346 ISSN 1923-1245 0004-0843 journal-article 2020 crarcticinstna https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic71029 2024-05-14T12:53:43Z Unlike all other members of the deer family, subpopulations of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) are typically sine-cyclic. We used Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank competing population dynamics models for 11 North American barren-ground caribou subpopulations. Nine of these subpopulations were best described as sine-cyclic with periods ranging from a minimum of 26 years (Bluenose-East and Porcupine) to a maximum of 55 years (Western Arctic); and amplitudes ranging from a minimum of 8 455 (Cape Bathurst) to a maximum of 327 432 (George River). Time series estimates of subpopulation abundance generated by the sine cycle models showed good correspondence to published subpopulation estimates of abundance for all nine sine-cyclic subpopulations (r = 0.978; p < 0.001). Lack of demographic closure (migration between subpopulations) was evident in both of the subpopulations that were not identified as sine-cyclic. Barren-ground caribou subpopulation amplitudes were mostly determined by subpopulation total range size and summer range productivity (R2 = 0.962; p < 0.001) and subpopulation periods were mostly determined by amplitude, total range productivity, and land surface temperature (R2 = 0.950; p < 0.001). Time series estimates of subpopulation abundance generated from the respective environmental regression models were highly correlated (r = 0.964; p < 0.001) to the published subpopulation estimates of abundance for the set of 9 sine-cyclic subpopulations. Extended (> 3 generations) subpopulation declines are a natural feature of cyclic barren-ground caribou subpopulations. Trends in species abundance based on pooled assemblages of asynchronous cyclic subpopulations should be interpreted with caution. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Rangifer tarandus Arctic Institute of North America Arctic Cape Bathurst ENVELOPE(-128.068,-128.068,70.579,70.579) ARCTIC 73 3 326 346 |
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Open Polar |
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Arctic Institute of North America |
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crarcticinstna |
language |
unknown |
description |
Unlike all other members of the deer family, subpopulations of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) are typically sine-cyclic. We used Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank competing population dynamics models for 11 North American barren-ground caribou subpopulations. Nine of these subpopulations were best described as sine-cyclic with periods ranging from a minimum of 26 years (Bluenose-East and Porcupine) to a maximum of 55 years (Western Arctic); and amplitudes ranging from a minimum of 8 455 (Cape Bathurst) to a maximum of 327 432 (George River). Time series estimates of subpopulation abundance generated by the sine cycle models showed good correspondence to published subpopulation estimates of abundance for all nine sine-cyclic subpopulations (r = 0.978; p < 0.001). Lack of demographic closure (migration between subpopulations) was evident in both of the subpopulations that were not identified as sine-cyclic. Barren-ground caribou subpopulation amplitudes were mostly determined by subpopulation total range size and summer range productivity (R2 = 0.962; p < 0.001) and subpopulation periods were mostly determined by amplitude, total range productivity, and land surface temperature (R2 = 0.950; p < 0.001). Time series estimates of subpopulation abundance generated from the respective environmental regression models were highly correlated (r = 0.964; p < 0.001) to the published subpopulation estimates of abundance for the set of 9 sine-cyclic subpopulations. Extended (> 3 generations) subpopulation declines are a natural feature of cyclic barren-ground caribou subpopulations. Trends in species abundance based on pooled assemblages of asynchronous cyclic subpopulations should be interpreted with caution. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bongelli, Eric Dowsley, Martha Velasco-Herrera, Victor M. Taylor, Mitchell |
spellingShingle |
Bongelli, Eric Dowsley, Martha Velasco-Herrera, Victor M. Taylor, Mitchell Do North American Migratory Barren-Ground Caribou Subpopulations Cycle? |
author_facet |
Bongelli, Eric Dowsley, Martha Velasco-Herrera, Victor M. Taylor, Mitchell |
author_sort |
Bongelli, Eric |
title |
Do North American Migratory Barren-Ground Caribou Subpopulations Cycle? |
title_short |
Do North American Migratory Barren-Ground Caribou Subpopulations Cycle? |
title_full |
Do North American Migratory Barren-Ground Caribou Subpopulations Cycle? |
title_fullStr |
Do North American Migratory Barren-Ground Caribou Subpopulations Cycle? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Do North American Migratory Barren-Ground Caribou Subpopulations Cycle? |
title_sort |
do north american migratory barren-ground caribou subpopulations cycle? |
publisher |
The Arctic Institute of North America |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/arctic71029 https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/download/71029/54349 https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/download/71029/54352 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-128.068,-128.068,70.579,70.579) |
geographic |
Arctic Cape Bathurst |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Cape Bathurst |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Rangifer tarandus |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Rangifer tarandus |
op_source |
ARCTIC volume 73, issue 3, page 326-346 ISSN 1923-1245 0004-0843 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.14430/arctic71029 |
container_title |
ARCTIC |
container_volume |
73 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
326 |
op_container_end_page |
346 |
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1801371078420856832 |