Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing fu...
Published in: | Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha/article-pdf/doi/10.1063/5.0089694/16501129/113139_1_online.pdf |
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craippubl:10.1063/5.0089694 2024-06-23T07:53:22+00:00 Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav Henry LaCasce, Joseph Vercauteren, Nikki Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Norges Forskningsråd 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha/article-pdf/doi/10.1063/5.0089694/16501129/113139_1_online.pdf en eng AIP Publishing Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science volume 32, issue 11 ISSN 1054-1500 1089-7682 journal-article 2022 craippubl https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 2024-06-06T04:04:26Z A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The Υ indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. Finally, the indicator is applied to two AMOC time series from a full complexity Earth systems model (CESM2). Compared with the doubling CO2 scenario, the quadrupling CO2 scenario results in stronger dynamical instability of the AMOC during its weakening phase. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic AIP Publishing Greenland Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 32 11 113139 |
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AIP Publishing |
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language |
English |
description |
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The Υ indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. Finally, the indicator is applied to two AMOC time series from a full complexity Earth systems model (CESM2). Compared with the doubling CO2 scenario, the quadrupling CO2 scenario results in stronger dynamical instability of the AMOC during its weakening phase. |
author2 |
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Norges Forskningsråd |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav Henry LaCasce, Joseph Vercauteren, Nikki |
spellingShingle |
Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav Henry LaCasce, Joseph Vercauteren, Nikki Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
author_facet |
Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav Henry LaCasce, Joseph Vercauteren, Nikki |
author_sort |
Rodal, Marie |
title |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_short |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_full |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_fullStr |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
title_sort |
dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: critical transitions and the atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
publisher |
AIP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha/article-pdf/doi/10.1063/5.0089694/16501129/113139_1_online.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
op_source |
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science volume 32, issue 11 ISSN 1054-1500 1089-7682 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0089694 |
container_title |
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science |
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32 |
container_issue |
11 |
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113139 |
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1802644963169665024 |