Contributions to surface air temperature trends estimated from climate time series: Medium-term causalities

• Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
• Main Authors: Mokhov, Igor I., Smirnov, Dmitry A.
• Other Authors: Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, Russian Science Foundation
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: AIP Publishing 2022
• Subjects: Antarctic; Pacific; Antarc*
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0088042; https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha/article-pdf/doi/10.1063/5.0088042/16498342/063128_1_online.pdf

Contributions of various natural and anthropogenic factors to trends of surface air temperatures at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres on various temporal horizons are estimated from climate data since the 19th century in empirical autoregressive models. Along with anthropogenic forcing, we assess the impact of several natural climate modes including Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, El-Nino/Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Antarctic Oscillation. On relatively short intervals of the length of two or three decades, contributions of climate variability modes are considerable and comparable to the contributions of greenhouse gases and even exceed the latter. On longer intervals of about half a century and greater, the contributions of greenhouse gases dominate at all latitudinal belts including polar, middle, and tropical ones.