The tipping times in an Arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy process is thought to be an appropriate model to describe such extreme events. The maximal likely trajectory,...
Published in: | Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0006626 https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha/article-pdf/doi/10.1063/5.0006626/14628781/063125_1_online.pdf |
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craippubl:10.1063/5.0006626 2024-05-19T07:34:10+00:00 The tipping times in an Arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events Yang, Fang Zheng, Yayun Duan, Jinqiao Fu, Ling Wiggins, Stephen National Natural Science Foundation of China National Natural Science Foundation of China National Natural Science Foundation of China 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0006626 https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha/article-pdf/doi/10.1063/5.0006626/14628781/063125_1_online.pdf en eng AIP Publishing Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science volume 30, issue 6 ISSN 1054-1500 1089-7682 journal-article 2020 craippubl https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0006626 2024-05-02T06:42:33Z In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy process is thought to be an appropriate model to describe such extreme events. The maximal likely trajectory, based on the nonlocal Fokker–Planck equation, is applied to a nonautonomous Arctic sea ice system under α-stable Lévy noise. Two types of tipping times, the early-warning tipping time and the disaster-happening tipping time, are used to predict the critical time for the maximal likely transition from a perennially ice-covered state to a seasonally ice-free one and from a seasonally ice-free state to a perennially ice-free one, respectively. We find that the increased intensity of extreme events results in shorter warning time for sea ice melting and that an enhanced greenhouse effect will intensify this influence, making the arrival of warning time significantly earlier. Meanwhile, for the enhanced greenhouse effect, we discover that increased intensity and frequency of extreme events will advance the disaster-happening tipping time, in which an ice-free state is maintained throughout the year in the Arctic Ocean. Finally, we identify values of the Lévy index α and the noise intensity ϵ in the αϵ-space that can trigger a transition between the Arctic sea ice state. These results provide an effective theoretical framework for studying Arctic sea ice variations under the influence of extreme events. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice AIP Publishing Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 30 6 063125 |
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English |
description |
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy process is thought to be an appropriate model to describe such extreme events. The maximal likely trajectory, based on the nonlocal Fokker–Planck equation, is applied to a nonautonomous Arctic sea ice system under α-stable Lévy noise. Two types of tipping times, the early-warning tipping time and the disaster-happening tipping time, are used to predict the critical time for the maximal likely transition from a perennially ice-covered state to a seasonally ice-free one and from a seasonally ice-free state to a perennially ice-free one, respectively. We find that the increased intensity of extreme events results in shorter warning time for sea ice melting and that an enhanced greenhouse effect will intensify this influence, making the arrival of warning time significantly earlier. Meanwhile, for the enhanced greenhouse effect, we discover that increased intensity and frequency of extreme events will advance the disaster-happening tipping time, in which an ice-free state is maintained throughout the year in the Arctic Ocean. Finally, we identify values of the Lévy index α and the noise intensity ϵ in the αϵ-space that can trigger a transition between the Arctic sea ice state. These results provide an effective theoretical framework for studying Arctic sea ice variations under the influence of extreme events. |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China National Natural Science Foundation of China National Natural Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yang, Fang Zheng, Yayun Duan, Jinqiao Fu, Ling Wiggins, Stephen |
spellingShingle |
Yang, Fang Zheng, Yayun Duan, Jinqiao Fu, Ling Wiggins, Stephen The tipping times in an Arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events |
author_facet |
Yang, Fang Zheng, Yayun Duan, Jinqiao Fu, Ling Wiggins, Stephen |
author_sort |
Yang, Fang |
title |
The tipping times in an Arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events |
title_short |
The tipping times in an Arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events |
title_full |
The tipping times in an Arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events |
title_fullStr |
The tipping times in an Arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events |
title_full_unstemmed |
The tipping times in an Arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events |
title_sort |
tipping times in an arctic sea ice system under influence of extreme events |
publisher |
AIP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0006626 https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha/article-pdf/doi/10.1063/5.0006626/14628781/063125_1_online.pdf |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_source |
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science volume 30, issue 6 ISSN 1054-1500 1089-7682 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0006626 |
container_title |
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
063125 |
_version_ |
1799472180075954176 |