Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes
Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above ∼50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressu...
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American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
2001
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.1063315 |
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craaas:10.1126/science.1063315 2024-06-23T07:49:40+00:00 Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes Baldwin, Mark P. Dunkerton, Timothy J. 2001 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.1063315 en eng American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Science volume 294, issue 5542, page 581-584 ISSN 0036-8075 1095-9203 journal-article 2001 craaas https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315 2024-06-13T04:01:44Z Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above ∼50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressure maps resemble closely the Arctic Oscillation pattern. These stratospheric events also precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, the location of storm tracks, and the local likelihood of mid-latitude storms. Our observations suggest that these stratospheric harbingers may be used as a predictor of tropospheric weather regimes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic AAAS Resource Center (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Arctic Science 294 5542 581 584 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
AAAS Resource Center (American Association for the Advancement of Science) |
op_collection_id |
craaas |
language |
English |
description |
Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above ∼50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressure maps resemble closely the Arctic Oscillation pattern. These stratospheric events also precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, the location of storm tracks, and the local likelihood of mid-latitude storms. Our observations suggest that these stratospheric harbingers may be used as a predictor of tropospheric weather regimes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Baldwin, Mark P. Dunkerton, Timothy J. |
spellingShingle |
Baldwin, Mark P. Dunkerton, Timothy J. Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes |
author_facet |
Baldwin, Mark P. Dunkerton, Timothy J. |
author_sort |
Baldwin, Mark P. |
title |
Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes |
title_short |
Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes |
title_full |
Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes |
title_sort |
stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) |
publishDate |
2001 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.1063315 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
Science volume 294, issue 5542, page 581-584 ISSN 0036-8075 1095-9203 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315 |
container_title |
Science |
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294 |
container_issue |
5542 |
container_start_page |
581 |
op_container_end_page |
584 |
_version_ |
1802640260523360256 |