Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss
The Mid-Pliocene represents the most recent interval in Earth history with climatic conditions similar to those expected in the coming decades. Mid-Pliocene sea level estimates therefore provide important constraints on projections of future ice sheet behavior and sea level change but differ by tens...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 |
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craaas:10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 2024-06-09T07:41:03+00:00 Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss Richards, Fred D. Coulson, Sophie L. Hoggard, Mark J. Austermann, Jacqueline Dyer, Blake Mitrovica, Jerry X. 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 en eng American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Science Advances volume 9, issue 46 ISSN 2375-2548 journal-article 2023 craaas https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 2024-05-16T12:55:50Z The Mid-Pliocene represents the most recent interval in Earth history with climatic conditions similar to those expected in the coming decades. Mid-Pliocene sea level estimates therefore provide important constraints on projections of future ice sheet behavior and sea level change but differ by tens of meters due to local distortion of paleoshorelines caused by mantle dynamics. We combine an Australian sea level marker compilation with geodynamic simulations and probabilistic inversions to quantify and remove these post-Pliocene vertical motions at continental scale. Dynamic topography accounts for most of the observed sea level marker deflection, and correcting for this effect and glacial isostatic adjustment yields a Mid-Pliocene global mean sea level of +16.0 (+10.4 to +21.5) m (50th/16th to 84th percentiles). Recalibration of recent high-end sea level projections using this revised estimate implies a more stable Antarctic Ice Sheet under future warming scenarios, consistent with midrange forecasts of sea level rise that do not incorporate a marine ice cliff instability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet AAAS Resource Center (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Antarctic Science Advances 9 46 |
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Open Polar |
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AAAS Resource Center (American Association for the Advancement of Science) |
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craaas |
language |
English |
description |
The Mid-Pliocene represents the most recent interval in Earth history with climatic conditions similar to those expected in the coming decades. Mid-Pliocene sea level estimates therefore provide important constraints on projections of future ice sheet behavior and sea level change but differ by tens of meters due to local distortion of paleoshorelines caused by mantle dynamics. We combine an Australian sea level marker compilation with geodynamic simulations and probabilistic inversions to quantify and remove these post-Pliocene vertical motions at continental scale. Dynamic topography accounts for most of the observed sea level marker deflection, and correcting for this effect and glacial isostatic adjustment yields a Mid-Pliocene global mean sea level of +16.0 (+10.4 to +21.5) m (50th/16th to 84th percentiles). Recalibration of recent high-end sea level projections using this revised estimate implies a more stable Antarctic Ice Sheet under future warming scenarios, consistent with midrange forecasts of sea level rise that do not incorporate a marine ice cliff instability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Richards, Fred D. Coulson, Sophie L. Hoggard, Mark J. Austermann, Jacqueline Dyer, Blake Mitrovica, Jerry X. |
spellingShingle |
Richards, Fred D. Coulson, Sophie L. Hoggard, Mark J. Austermann, Jacqueline Dyer, Blake Mitrovica, Jerry X. Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss |
author_facet |
Richards, Fred D. Coulson, Sophie L. Hoggard, Mark J. Austermann, Jacqueline Dyer, Blake Mitrovica, Jerry X. |
author_sort |
Richards, Fred D. |
title |
Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss |
title_short |
Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss |
title_full |
Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss |
title_fullStr |
Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss |
title_sort |
geodynamically corrected pliocene shoreline elevations in australia consistent with midrange projections of antarctic ice loss |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Science Advances volume 9, issue 46 ISSN 2375-2548 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 |
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Science Advances |
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9 |
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46 |
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1801369462743498752 |