Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane sho...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 |
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craaas:10.1126/sciadv.add6616 2024-06-09T07:48:11+00:00 Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 en eng American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Science Advances volume 9, issue 1 ISSN 2375-2548 journal-article 2023 craaas https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 2024-05-16T12:54:10Z Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic AAAS Resource Center (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Science Advances 9 1 |
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AAAS Resource Center (American Association for the Advancement of Science) |
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English |
description |
Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja |
spellingShingle |
Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
author_facet |
Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja |
author_sort |
Otto, Christian |
title |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_short |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_full |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_fullStr |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_sort |
better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from u.s. hurricanes under global warming |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Science Advances volume 9, issue 1 ISSN 2375-2548 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 |
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Science Advances |
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9 |
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1 |
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1801379795378896896 |