Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions
The mechanisms underlying decadal variability in Arctic sea ice remain actively debated. Here, we show that variability in boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions strongly influences simulated Arctic sea ice on multidecadal time scales. In particular, we find that a strong acceleration in sea ice decl...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 |
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craaas:10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 2024-09-15T18:08:06+00:00 Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions DeRepentigny, Patricia Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika M. Kay, Jennifer E. Fasullo, John Lamarque, Jean-François Tilmes, Simone Hannay, Cécile Mills, Michael J. Bailey, David A. Barrett, Andrew P. 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 en eng American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Science Advances volume 8, issue 30 ISSN 2375-2548 journal-article 2022 craaas https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 2024-08-08T04:01:12Z The mechanisms underlying decadal variability in Arctic sea ice remain actively debated. Here, we show that variability in boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions strongly influences simulated Arctic sea ice on multidecadal time scales. In particular, we find that a strong acceleration in sea ice decline in the early 21st century in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is related to increased variability in prescribed BB emissions in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) through summertime aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, we find that more than half of the reported improvement in sea ice sensitivity to CO 2 emissions and global warming from CMIP5 to CMIP6 can be attributed to the increased BB variability, at least in the CESM. These results highlight a new kind of uncertainty that needs to be considered when incorporating new observational data into model forcing while also raising questions about the role of BB emissions on the observed Arctic sea ice loss. Article in Journal/Newspaper Global warming Sea ice AAAS Resource Center (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Science Advances 8 30 |
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AAAS Resource Center (American Association for the Advancement of Science) |
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craaas |
language |
English |
description |
The mechanisms underlying decadal variability in Arctic sea ice remain actively debated. Here, we show that variability in boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions strongly influences simulated Arctic sea ice on multidecadal time scales. In particular, we find that a strong acceleration in sea ice decline in the early 21st century in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is related to increased variability in prescribed BB emissions in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) through summertime aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, we find that more than half of the reported improvement in sea ice sensitivity to CO 2 emissions and global warming from CMIP5 to CMIP6 can be attributed to the increased BB variability, at least in the CESM. These results highlight a new kind of uncertainty that needs to be considered when incorporating new observational data into model forcing while also raising questions about the role of BB emissions on the observed Arctic sea ice loss. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
DeRepentigny, Patricia Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika M. Kay, Jennifer E. Fasullo, John Lamarque, Jean-François Tilmes, Simone Hannay, Cécile Mills, Michael J. Bailey, David A. Barrett, Andrew P. |
spellingShingle |
DeRepentigny, Patricia Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika M. Kay, Jennifer E. Fasullo, John Lamarque, Jean-François Tilmes, Simone Hannay, Cécile Mills, Michael J. Bailey, David A. Barrett, Andrew P. Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
author_facet |
DeRepentigny, Patricia Jahn, Alexandra Holland, Marika M. Kay, Jennifer E. Fasullo, John Lamarque, Jean-François Tilmes, Simone Hannay, Cécile Mills, Michael J. Bailey, David A. Barrett, Andrew P. |
author_sort |
DeRepentigny, Patricia |
title |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_short |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_full |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_fullStr |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions |
title_sort |
enhanced simulated early 21st century arctic sea ice loss due to cmip6 biomass burning emissions |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 |
genre |
Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Science Advances volume 8, issue 30 ISSN 2375-2548 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
30 |
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1810445446039994368 |