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6 Alaska ecoregions 88 study sites Alaska Range Alaska paper birch Alaskan boreal forests Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Ecology Infectious Diseases Microbiology Populus tremuloides Stand-level infection rates Tanana Kuskokwim ecoregion United States Widespread aspen mortality Widespread mortality aspen basal area aspen leaf miner outbreak canker incidence canker infection canker pathogen carbon starvation disturbance regimes ecosystem function growth declines landscape position modeling canker probability novel canker disease smaller-diameter trees successional dynamics summer drought