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Arctic climate Atmospheric Science climate change projections marine cold-air outbreaks polar lows seasonal predictions Causal drivers Global and Planetary Change Marine cold air outbreak Polar low Seasonal prediction Verlagsveröffentlichung article decadal prediction system ensemble generation methods initialization methods 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Data assimilation Decadal Predictions Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Initial conditions Initialization shock Internal variability Frontiers Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law Ocean-atmosphere interaction Pollution Prediction skill Simulació per ordinador Subpolar gyre